To gauge the possibility of a coming recession, I follow two leading indicators now.
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey
- Conference Board Leading Economic Index
Category: Research
Data
I pile up some data sources here for myself and others.
Trade data:
US Census: Monthly import and output data of the US
USITC DataWeb: Detailed trade data of the US, like by types of use, commodity, etc.
Is labor share at its turning point?
Productivity Slowdown
Two very interesting and recent papers on productivity slowdown:
A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents – Philippe Aghion et al.
Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth – Ernest Liu et al.
Both contribute productivity slowdown to market concentration, yet via different mechanisms (entry cost for Aghion et al. and low interest rate for Ernest Liu et al.).
Chuan Liu 